Ebola Fight Hampered By Poor Analytics
Within six months, there could be as many as 20,000 Ebola cases, the World Health Organization estimated last week. The BBC reported Friday that more than 2,000 people of 3,044 known cases in West Africa have already died in the current outbreak.
The WHO is just one of the government agencies and groups around the world marshalling advanced data science to monitor the worst-ever epidemic of the virulent hemorrhagic disease, which was first seen nearly 40 years ago.
While the WHO estimate is in line with other projections, a real worry is that the data feeding these epidemiological models may not reflect the reality on the ground.
Several experts reached by InformationWeek underscored the analytical challenge of extrapolating from data collected in the field, given chaotic conditions, hard-to-reach villages, and weak or nonexistent health infrastructures in the affected regions of Africa, where all the Ebola infections have occurred to date.
“In this case, the most significant obstacle is that case tracking has to be done on kind of a shoe leather basis,” Andrew Schroeder, PhD, told InformationWeek. Schroeder is director of research and analysis at Direct Relief, a California nonprofit founded in 1948 that focuses on bringing critically needed medicines and supplies to local healthcare providers worldwide.
Full article by By Ellis Booker, Information Week
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